Time: 903 AM Wed May 5, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks

Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program

WARM TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
-W/NW flow aloft has kept similar conditions over the District today with high temperatures in the low 60's on the plains with 50's along the foothills. Mostly sunny skies this morning with clouds increasing in the afternoon with a chance for widely scattered high based rain/isolated thunderstorms.
-Storms will initiate over the higher terrain around midday with the best chance for rain/isolated thunderstorms for the District between 12-7pm. Storm motion will be relatively fast once again between 10-15mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts. Typical storms will produce between a TR-0.10" in 10-30 minutes of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible if a stronger storm is able to develop or a storm anchors itself for an extended period of time.
-Skies will begin to clear around sunset today as any rain/isolated thunderstorm chances taper off between 6-7pm. Overnight lows will drop into the low 40's across the plains with mid to upper 30's in the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce TR-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored moderate/strong thunderstorm may result in up to 0.8" of rain in 60-90 minutes.

A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure begins to build Thursday bringing high temperatures into the low to mid 70's with sunny skies and dry conditions. Warmer Friday with highs in the 80's. A very slight chance for a round of rain/isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon, although most precipitation will struggle to reach the ground resulting in a better chance for gusty winds. A change in the weather pattern this weekend with rain showers likely starting Saturday evening with a chance for rain showers through Sunday.

Location Prime Time 30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability
Message
Potential
Plains      
Adams 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE
Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Broomfield 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Denver 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE
Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE
Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE
Foothills above 6500ft      
Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.